Two Charts Signal A Global Revolution Ahead
Meanwhile President Trump Faces 2026 Midterms
The President’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz feels a bit like a David-and-Goliath showdown. It is likely to have decisive consequences for the establishment of a world order. The interests of too many nations, large and small, are tied up in this one spot. While there are numerous potential outcomes, the main one we’re looking at now is the moment the world transitions from a unipolar (US-led) world order to a multipolar one where US influence is diminished.
Unfortunately, trying to understand the events unfolding is challenging, and mainstream political discourse shapes many of the story angles, thereby offering only a partial picture.
There have to be ways to look at Trump’s second Presidency to date with clear context and universal benchmarks to tell the real story of his Presidency in general, and, in particular, what has been occurring in the Persian Gulf.
Here are two charts displaying Presidencies going back to Reagan, alongside the prices of Brent Crude Oil and the London (LBMA) gold price. Two long-standing global benchmarks that tell stories from the perspective of two key markets. One is a commodity that powers modern civilization, and the other is increasingly playing a role again in global finance (and has since the earliest civilizations).
In this context, we can see the Trump Presidency and the global headwinds he faces (or, as some could argue) he generates.
A 40 Year Look at Gold and US Presidencies Since 1987
The chart begins with 1987 because it allows us to see more clearly how President Trump’s second term fits alongside modern Presidencies going back forty years to the end of the Reagan era.
Notice below how the price of gold signaled the world entered an age of turbulence following 9/11 under Bush Jr.’s Presidency, which saw gold’s price spike the most since the Iranian revolution two decades prior.
Gold’s story is straightforward. Basically, from the founding of our nation until 1973, the price went from $20 per oz to $100 per oz. After the Iranian Hostage Crisis, it shot up to $850. It surpassed $1,000 after the Global Financial Crisis and has not fallen below that level since. It has sustained above $2,000 after the Ukraine war, and it went parabolic with record highs right after Trump’s second inauguration.
The 40-year chart appears to signal we’ve entered a next-level phase of turbulence. Obviously, the price can crash, but that would require a genuine ceasefire and some agreement to be reached between the US/Israel and Iran, et al. As we’ve seen since February 28, that window is closing fast, which means markets will eventually price in the chaos and disruption further.
A 40 Year Look at Brent Crude & US Presidencies Since 1987
The next chart, however, provides a more nuanced look at Presidencies over the last 40 years. Beginning with Bush Jr., the price action swings chaotically from high to low, from 9/11 through the Great Recession/Global Financial Crisis. Followed by a brief recovery and an oil glut due to the shale revolution occurring during Obama’s second term and into Trump’s first term. The series of events displayed in the Brent Crude chart below, no doubt, shows a turbulent phase.
Then, under Biden, the Ukraine War sparked panic in the oil markets once again, pushing prices to a near-record high.
To put this all in context, Ukraine, whose war with Russia and is supported by the EU, remains unresolved. Additionally, throw Iran into the mix, and the US is now actively involved in two major powder kegs, and a $200 barrel of oil is not off the table. As I write this, Reuters reports $150 per barrel on April 13. That would be an all-time high. This further illuminates the point that the Trump Presidency is at the threshold of a major period of turbulence.
Recall that Iran is the only nation in the region to have avoided revolution or regime change since the US aggressively embarked on nation building following 9/11. Since 2001, regime changes have occurred in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria. Now that a major war in Iran has been raging for over a month, should we expect a return to normalcy? The chart suggests otherwise.
So it appears to be an epic showdown between Iran, backed by resource-rich Eastern nations. The US and remaining allies, debt-based nations, are battling over arguably the most important port of entry for modern civilization.
And we happen to be facing that exact moment under Donald Trump’s second Presidency.
As of now, Brent Crude prices remain at a level near the highest range, and we’re about to find out if they’ll test new highs. It certainly feels like they can and will at this moment.
The Implications Of It All — The President’s Approval Rating One Year In & Going Into the Midterms
Meanwhile, the US midterms will soon heat up around mid to late summer.
How has Donald Trump’s second Presidency fared? Here is a chart outlining the President’s post-honeymoon approval ratings alongside a timeline of key events.
Our first poll of the Trump Presidency, January 31, 2025, following the inauguration, showed Trump’s approval rating at 49% and disapproval at 47.7%. It stayed net positive into our next round, which was late February 2025. Looking at the average approval-disapproval rating for his First 100 Days, it is 47.8% - 48.5%.
The Tariff wars that began in February took their toll after a few months, as evidenced by the dip in the President’s approval rating in late February, and then reached a new low around the time of the Federalizing troops in DC (though our polling showed the issue more favorable among those living in urban centers than in other location cohorts).
Then, a bump in approval ratings for the President followed Maduro’s capture and trial. Today, the President stands below 45% approval and 54% disapproval, with 43% strongly disapproving of the President’s job in the White House.
In short, the charts show how Trump’s second Presidency coincides with a potential Global Revolution, especially with regards to US status on the world stage. A close look at two global benchmarks make clear both the US and the globe are treading uncharted territory.
Regarding the 2026 midterms, it certainly doesn’t help Trump and Republicans if oil prices move higher than they already have.
To sum it up, if you want an idea of the future ahead, look at the dramatic movement of two global benchmarks and their response to the second Trump Presidency in comparison with previous ones.
Couple that with declining approval ratings among the overall electorate, as shown in the third chart above, and among various key cohorts, as outlined in my previous Substack titled “From Trump’s Winning Coalition 2.0 Back to 1.0,” and it looks increasingly like the President has created two quagmires, one internationally and one domestically (politically).