Voter Profiles You Should Know Series 1: Parents with Young Kids
Between Unraveling & Regeneration
A couple of weeks ago, while on a walk with an elder neighbor, the well-to-do retired Attorney told me, “I think parents your age with children have it the most difficult I’ve seen in my life.” It was a kind and rare gesture to acknowledge what parents face today, which can be described as somewhere between an unraveling and a regenerative crisis (or between collapse and renewal).
For parents, there is economic anxiety, job anxiety, a mental health epidemic among children, raging culture wars, etc.
Why focus on parents? Everyone’s stressed to the max. But as nearly one-quarter of the electorate, with a stake in the future and important roles in the 2022 and 2024 elections, demonstrates, this generation of parents has a momentous effect. They’re a voting group worth getting a firm understanding of their worldview and playing field.
For those with school-age children, the reality is a shrinking trust horizon with institutions, accelerated during Covid and continuing today. Numerous events since then have shaped many parents’ views, leading them to believe increasingly that previously trusted systems do not always work for them, including public education, healthcare, food, and money. And little by little, more of them take their trust elsewhere.
So, what do they look like, and what are their views on politics?
The following graphs and subsequent analysis will depict who this really important group of voters is, and we’ll be sure to keep this series going as events such as the Iran War, the road to midterms, and others unfold. The following charts are an aggregate based on 10 waves of national surveys of likely voters, totaling 2,200 parents since May of 2025.
Initially, the data was coded with age groupings such as 18-29 years, 30-44, 45-64, and 65+. Because those age groups line up well with generations (but not perfectly), I’ve relabeled them.
When we think of parents carting kids all over the place in 2026, we’re mostly talking about Millennials (those born roughly between 1982 and 1996), who make up nearly half of this group.
Followed by just under one-third being Gen X (here we have born 1962 - 1981, not perfect but good enough), and with Gen Z (1997 – 2008) represented one in five parents with children 17 or younger.
In terms of race, they’re three-fifths white and two-fifths non-white. For context, Generation X lived through the first wave of racial integration in public schooling, Millennials and Gen Z are entirely products of it. Their children today are the most diverse ever with data reporting as much as has white and half non white.
When it comes to their most trusted source, half say legacy media, which includes national newspapers (print and online), national networks (online and television), and national radio.
Still, one-third opt for new media, which includes social media and podcasts. Moreover, those who seek information in this new digital realm played a role in the 2024 turnout, both in terms of driving increased Republican and independent turnout, and arguably depressed Democratic turnout.
Today’s parents are decisively Republican, with 44% identifying as Republican and one-third as Democrat, leaving under one-quarter (23%) independent.
In our recent April 17-18 national poll, parents with school-aged kids ranked the deciding issues as follows: 38% cited inflation/affordability crisis, 24% immigration and the border, 20% America’s health and the state of healthcare, and in fourth place, both at 14% - the Iran War and what is taught in public schools.
What about their views towards President Trump?
Our 2024 Election Eve poll had Trump leading Harris 51% to 38% among Parent voters. As charted above, even five months into his job, Parents gave the President high approval ratings. Then in July, following the Epstein fallout, Trump’s rating fell to parity at 50/50. The graph shows Trump weathered similar moments through the rest of the year and into 2026. However, the charts show attrition among Parents following the War in Iran, though, overall they still remain with the President.
In the first month most parents approved if the Iran war, and 37% disapproved. Then in mid March, parents were split. Today, half disapprove while 47% approve. Can the situation unfold in their favor leading parents to swing back largely in favor of the Iran war?
Trump had parents convinced he’d provide not only safety but also prosperity. Here we see the following pattern over the months - a high 50s approval rating for The President’s handling of the economy into the summer of 2025, and then a drop in July, a surge in in September, then a steady decline into March. Today, he is slightly above water, 51% to 48% on the economy according to Parents. But what concludes in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately determine that.
Immigration gets the number two spot again for parents in our top two issues tracker. For a while, the second highest rated issue was American’s health and the state of healthcare (today in third place). Still, immigration has remained a top issue, especially for this generation of Parents, and the President scores well with this group, despite controversy in Minnesota. For a better understanding of why Parents side with the President’s stance on the border, keep in mind their approval of the President’s job handling crime in large cities is at 55% to 37% disapproval.
For many voters, the border and crime fit hand in glove with a strong desire for law and order, which has a lot of appeal for Parents with little kids in a world of chaos.
It’s important to remember that the 2024 election for most voters was simply about voters feeling safe on a variety of fronts - personal safety, safety in public, and safety in their pockets. And Parents with little ones expected Trump would deliver on all fronts.
So how does this all add up in the current moment? We’ve polled the Congressional Generic Ballot three times since early February – enough to get an early look at the trend line.
In three months, we’ve seen a 10-point lead turn into an 18-point lead, then a 7-point lead. If the War in Iran either goes South or drags on with increased disruption to the global economy, you’ll likely see further attrition from this dedicated group. Why? Because Parents already navigate their own complex field of landmines.
Our most recent polling shows the war has impacted Parents (as well as voters in general), as most (54%) say they’ve already been significantly impacted by rising costs at the fuel pump. Meanwhile another 30% say somewhat impacted, leaving 16% not impacted or were unsure. Tracking this metric will be key in determining how loyal this group will stay to the President.
Concluding Chart for Long-term Perspective on Parents with Young Kids
I depicted a similar chart in my previous Substack, but this one is epic as it allows us to zoom in on the last few years as key to understanding going into 2030. Keep in mind that the importance of tracking gold’s price is that as an international benchmark it provides a neutral signal amid a world increasingly polluted with noise. It’s not the only one, but a good one.
The chart below encapsulates the story of Millennials who reached adulthood in 2000, at the Millennium, and came of age and treaded turbulent waters into the opening two decades. The two and a half decades unfold with three waves of price surge, with the recent two increasingly parabolic.
In terms of strictly turning out to vote, parents with young kids today (most of whom are Millennials), represent nearly one-quarter of the electorate, which is why you should get to know this intriguing voter profile.